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Type O CME Update; may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert
##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T21:00:00Z
## Message ID: 20120712-AL-006

## Alert Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2012-07-12T16:54:00-CME-001 (see alert 20120712-AL-005). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2012-07-14T10:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).

Simulations also indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach (plus minus 7 hours):
Messenger: 2012-07-13T10:04Z
Earth: 2012-07-14T10:20Z
Spitzer: 2012-07-14T13:56Z
MSL: 2012-07-15T22:14Z
Mars: 2012-07-16T00:55Z


Links to the movies of the modeled event:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120712_193500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...

Roughly estimated type O CME parameters are:
Start time of the event: 2012-07-12T16:54Z (STEREO-B-COR2).
Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: ~ 70 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

Updates on this event will be provided when available.

## Notes:
The CME is associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (see alert 20120712-AL-001).

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center gsfc-spaceweatherdeskatmail [dot] nasa [dot] gov>
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