If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Update on Ongoing Solar Eruption: Latest analysis Upgrades to O-type CME
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts.
This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME Update
## Message Issue Date: 2012-09-28T14:53:00Z
## Message ID: 20120928-AL-004
Update on CME with ID 2012-09-28T02:25:00-CME-001 (see notification 20120928-AL-003). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may still impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at the updated earlier arrival time of about 2012-09-29T22:47Z (plus minus 7 hours). The very roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong). Updates on this event will be provided when available. There may be a glancing blow a Spitzer, but the simulation no longer indicates a strong impact at this spacecraft.
Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded O-type):
Start time of the event: 2012-09-28T02:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~1160 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 85 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/05 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.
Links to the movies of the modeled event:
This CME is associated with a C3.7 class solar flare which peaked at 2012-09-27T23:57Z from active region 1577, and SEP events at GOES, STEREO A, and B (activity IDs 2012-09-28T02:47:50-SEP-001, 2012-09-28T03:00:00-SEP-001, 2012-09-28T05:21:17-SEP-001; see notifications 20120928-AL-001 and 20120928-AL-002).
O-type or Occasional CMEs have speeds in the range of 1000-2000 km/s (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score).
For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center
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